Express Entry:Four Strategic Lessons from the Largest Draw in History on 

Recent Express Entry draws, particularly those focused on the Canadian Experience Class (CEC), show a steady decline in the CRS score required to receive an ITA.

The trend is evident in the following results:

Date	Program	CRS (cut-off)	ITAs
November 12, 2025	CEC	533	1,000
November 26, 2025	CEC	531	1,000
December 10, 2025	CEC	520	6,000
December 16, 2025	CEC	515	5,000
January 7, 2026	CEC	511	8,000
January 21, 2026	CEC	509	6,000

In just over two months, the CRS cut-off dropped by more than 20 points, while the number of ITAs issued per draw increased significantly.

This is not coincidental.As in 2021, the Canadian government is once again emphasizing permanent residence pathways for individuals who:

• Are already working in Canada
• Have demonstrated economic and social integration

The most important lesson from the 2021 historic draw is simple yet critical:A low CRS score does not mean there is no opportunity.

Many candidates who received ITAs with a CRS score of 75 at the time never expected to be invited.
What they had in common was not a high score, but one crucial factor:

They had already submitted an Express Entry profile and were eligible when the opportunity arose.

This fundamental structure of Express Entry remains unchanged today.

1. Being in the Pool Matters More Than Your CRS Score

No matter how large a draw may be, candidates without an Express Entry profile are never invited.
It is the same principle as a lottery: you cannot win if you do not buy a ticket.

In practice, even candidates with CRS scores in the low 300s—or lower—have received ITAs due to:

• Expanded draw sizes
• Concentrated CEC or category-based draws
• Shifts in immigration policy priorities

Rather than waiting for a “better score,” securing a place in the pool under current eligibility conditions is the true starting point of an effective Express Entry strategy.

2. CRS Scores Are Not Always as Straightforward as They Appear

CRS scores do not always change exactly when candidates expect them to.This is especially true for work experience, which is assessed on a monthly rather than daily basis.

As a result, some candidates are credited with additional experience earlier than anticipated, leading to situations where: An ITA is issued before the candidate realizes their score has increased.

This mechanism was also a contributing factor in the 2021 draw, when many candidates who believed their scores were still “too low” were suddenly invited.

3. In Tie-Break Situations, Submission Time Determines the Outcome

Express Entry uses a tie-break rule when multiple candidates share the same CRS score.
In such cases, the candidate who submitted their profile earlier is prioritized.

If a profile expires or language test results become invalid, resubmission resets the profile’s timestamp.
During large-scale draws like that of 2021, even a difference of a few days—or weeks—proved decisive for many candidates.

4. Planning for Category-Based Draws Is Now Essential

Compared to 2021, today’s Express Entry system places even greater emphasis on policy-driven, category-based selection.

Categories such as:

• French-language proficiency
• Healthcare
• STEM occupations
• Skilled trades
• Education

now carry strategic importance that can outweigh CRS score differences alone.

Preparing with a clear understanding of which category you may qualify for in the future can determine success in the next unexpected draw.

What Happened in 2021 Can Happen Again—In a Different Form.The largest Express Entry draw in history was exceptional, but it was also directional.
The current combination of declining CRS cut-offs and increasing ITA volumes reflects the same message—this time in a more practical and sustained manner.

Express Entry is a system where opportunity can arrive suddenly for those who are prepared.
What matters most is not perfection, but a strategically built profile and ongoing, careful management.

At Shiraishi Visa JP Canada, we provide tailored support for permanent residence applications, including Express Entry consultations, CRS score assessments, profile creation, and full representation services.
If you are considering permanent residence in Canada, we strongly recommend seeking professional guidance at an early stage.